Catalysts & Headlines (CT)

⚡
Jobless claims keep labor-risk sensitivity alive
A softer labor read supports rate-cut hopes, while a stronger read would pressure duration-sensitive growth trades.
07:30
Semiconductor leadership cushions the Nasdaq
Chip strength helps stabilize dips, but NQ still needs R1 reclaimed to force broader short-covering.
12:16
Nasdaq volatility stays elevated
High volatility premium keeps position sizing defensive and makes failed breakouts punishable.
12:16

Economic Calendar (CT)

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07:30USUnemployment ClaimsMed

Key Levels — NQ

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LevelPriceType
R330175Resistance
R230080Resistance
R129945Resistance
Pivot29832Pivot
S129559Support
POC29556POC
S229469Support
S329374Support

Overnight Session

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NQ Globex
29927.25
-706.00
ES Globex
7584.00
55.25
VIX
15.97
-0.93
10Y Yield
4.541
-0.028
DXY
100.89
-0.16
Crude
71.96
-1.56

Market Context

📊
VXN is the Nasdaq-100 implied-volatility index (the Nasdaq VIX), from the live print. Higher VXN = more expected turbulence. Colour: green = calm (below ~20), amber = moderate, red = elevated (above ~26). Bar = stress level, longer = more fear.
VXN
Elevated, easing
Index options put/call balance. Heavy puts = hedging/fear; light puts = complacency. Colour: green = light hedging (constructive), amber = balanced, red = heavy protection (defensive). Bar = strength of the signal.
Put-Call
Balanced positioning
Shape of the VIX futures curve (VIX9D vs 30-day VIX), computed from live data. Contango (front below spot) = calm; flat or inverted = near-term fear. Colour: green = calm contango, amber = flat, red = inverted/stress. Bar = stress level.
VIX Term Structure
Contango, calm
Nasdaq leadership momentum (semis/SMH day change plus NQ trend). Colour: green = semis confirming the bid (mag-7 leading), amber = mixed, red = leadership weakening. Bar = strength of the signal.
Tech Momentum
Fragile upside momentum
Nasdaq-100 participation - how broad it is. Colour: green = broad/strong, amber = mixed, red = narrow/weak. Bar = strength of the signal.
Breadth
Narrow, mixed tape

Session Playbook

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Bull Case
OrderBuy Stop
Entry29940-29950
Stop29825
TP130089
TP230233
A push through R1 forces shorts to cover; Pivot is the fail point, with R2 the first paid target.
Bear Case
OrderSell Stop
Entry29822-29842
Stop29952
TP129688
TP229544
Losing the Pivot turns the midday bounce into distribution; R1 caps risk while S1 and S2 become the magnets.
TradingView
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