Catalysts & Headlines (CT)

⚡
Private payrolls test growth resilience
A softer labor read can ease yields and support duration-sensitive tech, while strength keeps pressure on multiples.
07:15
Fed remarks keep rate risk active
Policy commentary can quickly reset rate expectations and drive sharp moves in yields and growth stocks.
08:00
Factory activity sets the macro tone
A downside miss would raise slowdown concerns, while a stronger print can reinforce the soft-landing bid.
09:00
Manufacturing prices matter for inflation expectations
Sticky input prices would challenge disinflation optimism and keep bond-market pressure on high-duration tech.
09:00

Economic Calendar (CT)

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07:15USADP Non-Farm Employment ChangeMed
08:00USFed Chairman Warsh SpeaksHigh
09:00USISM Manufacturing PMIHigh
09:00USISM Manufacturing PricesMed

Key Levels — NQ

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LevelPriceType
R330577Resistance
R230353Resistance
R130262Resistance
POC30088POC
Pivot30162Pivot
S130007Support
S229935Support

Overnight Session

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NQ Globex
30162.00
114.75
ES Globex
7555.50
7.25
VIX
16.35
-0.10
10Y Yield
4.469
0.051
DXY
101.35
0.16
Crude
68.28
-1.22

Market Context

📊
VXN is the Nasdaq-100 implied-volatility index (the Nasdaq VIX), from the live print. Higher VXN = more expected turbulence. Colour: green = calm (below ~20), amber = moderate, red = elevated (above ~26). Bar = stress level, longer = more fear.
VXN
Elevated, easing
Index options put/call balance. Heavy puts = hedging/fear; light puts = complacency. Colour: green = light hedging (constructive), amber = balanced, red = heavy protection (defensive). Bar = strength of the signal.
Put-Call
Balanced hedging
Shape of the VIX futures curve (VIX9D vs 30-day VIX), computed from live data. Contango (front below spot) = calm; flat or inverted = near-term fear. Colour: green = calm contango, amber = flat, red = inverted/stress. Bar = stress level.
VIX Term Structure
Contango, calm
Nasdaq leadership momentum (semis/SMH day change plus NQ trend). Colour: green = semis confirming the bid (mag-7 leading), amber = mixed, red = leadership weakening. Bar = strength of the signal.
Tech Momentum
Mixed, momentum fading
Nasdaq-100 participation - how broad it is. Colour: green = broad/strong, amber = mixed, red = narrow/weak. Bar = strength of the signal.
Breadth
Narrow, weak internals

Session Playbook

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Bull Case
OrderBuy Stop
Entry30150-30174
Stop30041
TP130307
TP230452
A firm reclaim of the Pivot targets the M15 resistance shelf first, then the prior high zone if momentum expands.
Bear Case
OrderSell Stop
Entry30150-30174
Stop30283
TP130017
TP229872
Failure at the Pivot opens a clean breakdown path toward prior support, with R1 overhead defining risk.
TradingView
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