Catalysts & Headlines (CT)
The Fed decision will test the higher-for-longer trade
An unchanged stance with fewer cuts implied would pressure duration-sensitive tech and favor higher yields.
13:00
Powell guidance can reprice the rate-cut path
A hawkish emphasis would threaten NQ rebounds, while softer language could squeeze tech shorts.
13:30
Economic Calendar (CT)
Key Levels — NQ
| Level | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 29672 | Resistance |
| R2 | 29432 | Resistance |
| R1 | 29193 | Resistance |
| Pivot | 28949 | Pivot |
| POC | 28946 | POC |
| S1 | 28710 | Support |
| S2 | 28467 | Support |
| S3 | 28223 | Support |
Overnight Session
NQ Globex
28945.75
-1613.50
ES Globex
7506.75
9.00
VIX
17.90
-0.87
10Y Yield
4.604
0.063
DXY
100.97
0.20
Crude
81.90
0.12
Market Context
VXN is the Nasdaq-100 implied-volatility index (the Nasdaq VIX), from the live print. Higher VXN = more expected turbulence. Colour: green = calm (below ~20), amber = moderate, red = elevated (above ~26). Bar = stress level, longer = more fear.
VXN
Elevated, rising
Index options put/call balance. Heavy puts = hedging/fear; light puts = complacency. Colour: green = light hedging (constructive), amber = balanced, red = heavy protection (defensive). Bar = strength of the signal.
Put-Call
Defensive hedging building
Shape of the VIX futures curve (VIX9D vs 30-day VIX), computed from live data. Contango (front below spot) = calm; flat or inverted = near-term fear. Colour: green = calm contango, amber = flat, red = inverted/stress. Bar = stress level.
VIX Term Structure
Flat carry
Nasdaq leadership momentum (semis/SMH day change plus NQ trend). Colour: green = semis confirming the bid (mag-7 leading), amber = mixed, red = leadership weakening. Bar = strength of the signal.
Tech Momentum
Weak, sellers firmly control
Nasdaq-100 participation - how broad it is. Colour: green = broad/strong, amber = mixed, red = narrow/weak. Bar = strength of the signal.
Breadth
Narrow, tech lagging
Session Playbook
Bull Case
| Order | Buy Stop |
| Entry | 29200-29220 |
| Stop | 29094 |
| TP1 | 29349 |
| TP2 | 29488 |
A sustained break above the session high would neutralize the liquidation and open a squeeze toward upper resistance.
Bear Case
| Order | Sell Limit |
| Entry | 29052-29069 |
| Stop | 29177 |
| TP1 | 28921 |
| TP2 | 28782 |
A failed rebound into overhead supply preserves the tech-led breakdown and targets a retest of the session low.
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