Catalysts & Headlines (CT)

⚡
NQ presses resistance while semis lag
A push through R1 needs stronger chip participation or the rally risks stalling into resistance.
12:16
Volatility eases but risk remains two-sided
Lower broad fear supports dip demand, but elevated tech volatility keeps trade sizing and stops critical.
12:16
Oil strength keeps macro risk premium alive
Firm crude can pressure risk appetite if inflation and geopolitical risk reprice together.
12:16

Economic Calendar (CT)

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Key Levels — NQ

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LevelPriceType
R330210Resistance
R230074Resistance
R129948Resistance
POC29776POC
Pivot29893Pivot
S129742Support
S229368Support
S329274Support

Overnight Session

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NQ Globex
29943.25
-130.25
ES Globex
7482.50
80.75
VIX
17.83
-0.58
10Y Yield
4.378
0.006
DXY
101.10
-0.26
Crude
70.79
1.56

Market Context

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VXN is the Nasdaq-100 implied-volatility index (the Nasdaq VIX), from the live print. Higher VXN = more expected turbulence. Colour: green = calm (below ~20), amber = moderate, red = elevated (above ~26). Bar = stress level, longer = more fear.
VXN
Elevated, easing
Index options put/call balance. Heavy puts = hedging/fear; light puts = complacency. Colour: green = light hedging (constructive), amber = balanced, red = heavy protection (defensive). Bar = strength of the signal.
Put-Call
Balanced hedging demand
Shape of the VIX futures curve (VIX9D vs 30-day VIX), computed from live data. Contango (front below spot) = calm; flat or inverted = near-term fear. Colour: green = calm contango, amber = flat, red = inverted/stress. Bar = stress level.
VIX Term Structure
Flat carry
Nasdaq leadership momentum (semis/SMH day change plus NQ trend). Colour: green = semis confirming the bid (mag-7 leading), amber = mixed, red = leadership weakening. Bar = strength of the signal.
Tech Momentum
Rebound still fragile
Nasdaq-100 participation - how broad it is. Colour: green = broad/strong, amber = mixed, red = narrow/weak. Bar = strength of the signal.
Breadth
Mixed under surface

Session Playbook

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Bull Case
OrderBuy Limit
Entry29878-29908
Stop29773
TP130037
TP230181
Buy the Pivot retest only if buyers defend it; targets sit at prior close and upper extension, with S1 defining failure.
Bear Case
OrderSell Stop
Entry29878-29908
Stop30013
TP129749
TP229605
Sell a failed Pivot retest if momentum rolls over; R2 invalidates the breakdown while lower supports offer clean downside pay.
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